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NOAA scientists on high alert for 2013 solar maximum
NOAA scientists are on high alert as the Sun enters a period of solar maximum over the next 14 months during which we will see a burst of activity that could have catastrophic effects on global power grids and communications systems.
A solar maximum is a normal period of intense or heightened solar activity in the 11 year solar cycle of the Sun. During a solar maximum, large numbers of sunspots appear and the Sun's power output increases with a significant upsurge in the incidence and power of solar flares. One of the best known examples of a major solar flare that affected communications system was the solar storm of 1859, known as the Carrington Event, a major solar eruption that struck the Earth with such intensity that the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42° north of the equator.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists say they are on high alert for massive electromagnetic energy bursts from the Sun during the 2013 solar maximum that could inflict damage on power grids and communications systems.
According to scientists, if the Earth is hit by a major solar flare during the solar maximum it could result in widespread power outage, ground air traffic, disable military and civilian satellite communications.
The Blaze reports that Tom Bogdan, director of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, says the agency is monitoring the situation as closely as possible. He said: “We now know how powerful space weather can be and how events that begin on the surface of the Sun can end up wreaking havoc here on Earth. This is why NOAA has a Space Weather Prediction Center — to forecast when space weather is coming our way, so we can avoid or mitigate damages.”
According to The Blaze, a 2008 study estimated the cost of damage due to a direct hit by a solar flare at $1-2 trillion, compared to Hurricane Katrina that cost $125 billion. The massive cost arises from the fact that in the early 21st century, our daily lives are closely tied to the continued function of power and satellite systems. According to Dr Michio Kaku, a member of the American Physical Society (APS), “Solar flares are like bullets fired into space, so far we've dodged the bullets.”
Scientists point to "The Carrington Event," named after British astronomer Richard Carrington, who observed it. The Carrington Event was a major solar flare that hit the Earth in 1859, shortly after the Sun reached solar maximum at a time in which the telegraph provided the only advanced global communication system. According NOAA, the surge of geomagnetic storm that hit the Earth after the solar eruption disrupted telegraph systems worldwide. The flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that sent out charged particles which reached the atmosphere only 18 hours after the ejection.
According to physicist John Millis, in the event of a major solar flare that hits the Earth directly during the 2013 solar maximum, the sudden flux in charged particles would have an adverse effect on our electrical systems, including the entire grid system. According to Millis, the effect of a major solar flare could be devastating and it could take months to repair. That could result in a power outage lasting several months.
Dr Kaku warned that there is need to prepare for a major solar flare that could hit global communication and power systems. According to APS experts, an investment of $300 million is sufficient to insulate the US power infrastructure and protect it from the effect of a major flare.
The Blaze reports that last year, a group of physicists from the APS spoke to the Congress, proposing measures to insulate the US power grid, but their proposal was rejected.
Some of the scientists even speculated that a large solar hit could lead to societal breakdown. Food and medicine in short supply could lead to food riots within days of an outage.
Länk (http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/337766#ixzz2Lk5l5oap)
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A Perfect Solar Superstorm: The 1859 Carrington Event
http://www.history.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/solar-storm-wide.jpg
The Carrington Event
On the morning of September 1, 1859, amateur astrologer Richard Carrington ascended into the private observatory attached to his country estate outside of London. After cranking open the dome’s shutter to reveal the clear blue sky, he pointed his brass telescope toward the sun and began to sketch a cluster of enormous dark spots that freckled its surface. Suddenly, Carrington spotted what he described as “two patches of intensely bright and white light” erupting from the sunspots. Five minutes later the fireballs vanished, but within hours their impact would be felt across the globe.
That night, telegraph communications around the world began to fail; there were reports of sparks showering from telegraph machines, shocking operators and setting papers ablaze. All over the planet, colorful auroras illuminated the nighttime skies, glowing so brightly that birds began to chirp and laborers started their daily chores, believing the sun had begun rising. Some thought the end of the world was at hand, but Carrington’s naked eyes had spotted the true cause for the bizarre happenings: a massive solar flare with the energy of 10 billion atomic bombs. The flare spewed electrified gas and subatomic particles toward Earth, and the resulting geomagnetic storm—dubbed the “Carrington Event”—was the largest on record to have struck the planet.
Bright Flare, Dark Lines
Compared to today’s information superhighway, the telegraph system in 1859 may have been a mere dirt road, but the “Victorian Internet” was also a critical means of transmitting news, sending private messages and engaging in commerce. Telegraph operators in the United States had observed local interruptions due to thunderstorms and northern lights before, but they never experienced a global disturbance like the one-two punch they received in the waning days of summer in 1859.
Many telegraph lines across North America were rendered inoperable on the night of August 28 as the first of two successive solar storms struck. E.W. Culgan, a telegraph manager in Pittsburgh, reported that the resulting currents flowing through the wires were so powerful that platinum contacts were in danger of melting and “streams of fire” were pouring forth from the circuits. In Washington, D.C., telegraph operator Frederick W. Royce was severely shocked as his forehead grazed a ground wire. According to a witness, an arc of fire jumped from Royce’s head to the telegraphic equipment. Some telegraph stations that used chemicals to mark sheets reported that powerful surges caused telegraph paper to combust.
On the morning of September 2, the magnetic mayhem resulting from the second storm created even more chaos for telegraph operators. When American Telegraph Company employees arrived at their Boston office at 8 a.m., they discovered it was impossible to transmit or receive dispatches. The atmosphere was so charged, however, that operators made an incredible discovery: They could unplug their batteries and still transmit messages to Portland, Maine, at 30- to 90-second intervals using only the auroral current. Messages still couldn’t be sent as seamlessly as under normal conditions, but it was a useful workaround. By 10 a.m. the magnetic disturbance abated enough that stations reconnected their batteries, but transmissions were still affected for the rest of the morning.
Sky on Fire
When telegraphs did come back on line, many were filled with vivid accounts of the celestial light show that had been witnessed the night before. Newspapers from France to Australia featured glowing descriptions of brilliant auroras that had turned night into day. One eyewitness account from a woman on Sullivan’s Island in South Carolina ran in the Charleston Mercury: “The eastern sky appeared of a blood red color. It seemed brightest exactly in the east, as though the full moon, or rather the sun, were about to rise. It extended almost to the zenith. The whole island was illuminated. The sea reflected the phenomenon, and no one could look at it without thinking of the passage in the Bible which says, ‘the sea was turned to blood.’ The shells on the beach, reflecting light, resembled coals of fire.”
The sky was so crimson that many who saw it believed that neighboring locales were on fire. Americans in the South were particularly startled by the northern lights, which migrated so close to the equator that they were seen in Cuba and Jamaica. Elsewhere, however, there appeared to be genuine confusion. In Abbeville, South Carolina, masons awoke and began to lay bricks at their job site until they realized the hour and returned to bed. In Bealeton, Virginia, larks were stirred from their sleep at 1 a.m. and began to warble. (Unfortunately for them, a conductor on the Orange & Alexandria Railroad was also awake and shot three of them dead.) In cities across America, people stood in the streets and gazed up at the heavenly pyrotechnics. In Boston, some even caught up on their reading, taking advantage of the celestial fire to peruse the local newspapers.
Ice core samples have determined that the Carrington Event was twice as big as any other solar storm in the last 500 years. What would be the impact of a similar storm today? According to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences, it could cause “extensive social and economic disruptions” due to its impact on power grids, satellite communications and GPS systems. The potential price tag? Between $1 trillion and $2 trillion.
Länk (http://www.history.com/news/a-perfect-solar-superstorm-the-1859-carrington-event)
A sunspot large enough to “swallow six Earths” has been spotted by NASA. The space agency is warning that solar storms could occur this week if the sunspot continues to swell. The massive sunspot detected by the Solar Dynamics Observatory grew ever larger during the past 48 hours.
The potential solar flare reportedly evolved quickly over the past two days, Yahoo News notes. The sunspot is a collection of dark spots on the surface of the Sun. Sunspots are cooler than the solar material that surrounds them and form shifting magnetic fields.
NASA spokeswoman Karen Fox had this to say about potential solar flares:
“It has grown to over six Earth diameters across, but its full extent is hard to judge since the spot lies on a sphere, not a flat disk. This is a fairly unstable configuration that scientists know can lead to eruptions of radiation on the sun called solar flares.”
As previously reported by The Inquisitr, the Sun is currently reaching the peak of its 11-year solar cycle. The Solar Dynamics Observatory was launched by NASA in 2010. The observatory spacecraft is just one of many alerting NASA to signs of solar flares, or coronal mass ejections.
One of the biggest concerns surrounding solar flares is the ability the storms have to take down our antiquated power grid. If a massive solar flare is directed at Earth, the fiscal destruction could be legendary. Both NASA and NOAA experts estimate the potential damage of such a direct hit would be in the trillions.
The last major solar flare to directly impact Earth was in 1859, the Carrington Event. Telegraph wires reportedly snapped in half and caused multiple blazes. The folks of the 1800s were far less impacted by the solar flare than we would be today. Due to the computerized equipment inside vehicles built after the 1950s, nearly anything on four wheels (or two) would come to a screeching halt.
Faraday cages are the best defense for protecting computers, televisions, generators, and other electronic equipment. If the enormous sunspot detected by NASA turns into an Earth-directed solar flare, we could quickly find ourselves in a Little House on the Prairie style existence.
Are you prepped to survive a massive solar flare?
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Länk (http://www.inquisitr.com/536173/solar-flares-monster-sun-spot-growing/#9MkofZCISK2MY6gt.99)
Andy.da.wohoo
2013-02-23, 18:31
Ganska coolt. Vi får hoppas att vi bara får de häftiga ljusshowerna och slipper problemen med elnäten och att satelliterna havererar.
dluddeckens
2013-02-23, 18:35
Blir säkert som milleniumbuggen.... nada.
Blir säkert som milleniumbuggen.... nada.
Jämförde du precis detta med Y2K?
35TbGjt-weA
tossefar
2013-02-23, 19:31
Jämförde du precis detta med Y2K?
Att du tycker det är viktigare betyder inte att alla gör det.
stolpskott
2013-02-23, 19:36
Att du tycker det är viktigare betyder inte att alla gör det.
Skillnaden är väl att det här har vetenskapligt belägg, till skillnad från Y2K som var vidskepligt båg.
Att du tycker det är viktigare betyder inte att alla gör det.
Har inte ett dugg med att göra vad man tycker är viktigare eller ej. Det är jämförelsen som är korkad då det är som att jämföra ett svagt, eventuellt hot om en örfil med en gruppmisshandel.
När händer detta då? Inte läst.
http://www.troll.me/images/scumbag-steve/tldr-ask-questiunz.jpg
dluddeckens
2013-02-24, 11:06
Har inte ett dugg med att göra vad man tycker är viktigare eller ej. Det är jämförelsen som är korkad då det är som att jämföra ett svagt, eventuellt hot om en örfil med en gruppmisshandel.
Vi får väl se, vem står där med dumstruten.
Min erfarenhet är att det ofta är mer hype än aktion i sådana här case. Parallellen med y2k var kanske lite klumpig emellertid :D
tl;dr
TLDR: Great tanning season this year :hbang:
stolpskott
2013-02-24, 11:15
Vi får väl se, vem står där med dumstruten.
Så vitt jag kan se så är det ingen i tråden som påstår att de här konsekvenserna kommer slå till, bara att solen når sitt maximum under den närmsta tiden (vilket kommer ske, det händer regelbundet och är fakta baserad på rätt grundläggande fysik). Konsekvenserna är en möjlighet men ingen absolut förutsägelse, och det har ingen påstått. Med andra ord står du med dumstruten redan nu.
Min erfarenhet är att det ofta är mer hype än aktion i sådana här case.
Hype vet jag inte, de flesta hoppas väl på att det inte ska hända något?
Parallellen med y2k var kanske lite klumpig emellertid :D
Väldigt klumpig, ja.
Rikard Jansson
2013-02-24, 11:17
TLDR: Great tanning season this year :hbang:
This, jag kommer bli skitbrun.
skillnaden är väl att det här har vetenskapligt belägg, till skillnad från y2k som var vidskepligt båg.
lol
Så vitt jag kan se så är det ingen i tråden som påstår att de här konsekvenserna kommer slå till, bara att solen når sitt maximum under den närmsta tiden (vilket kommer ske, det händer regelbundet och är fakta baserad på rätt grundläggande fysik). Konsekvenserna är en möjlighet men ingen absolut förutsägelse, och det har ingen påstått. Med andra ord står du med dumstruten redan nu.
Bingo.
tossefar
2013-02-24, 13:35
Jag vet att ni troligtvis är några år yngre, men när det började pratas om Y2K så var det betydligt värre konsekvenser är trasiga elnät... Det var total kollaps av alla bankväsenden, atombomber skulle skjutas iväg av misstag, alla båtar skulle kapsejsa och datorer skulle vara ett minne blott.
Sen blev det förstås ingenting av det.
LoveMachine
2013-02-24, 13:37
Intressant att den "nyheten" fått sånt genomslag helt plötsligt. Fast man ska inte dra så stora växlar på det hela. Mycket tyder på att det kommer vara ett ganska händelselöst solmaximum med tanke på hur seg den här cykeln varit. Det var troligtvis det lägsta solfläcksminimumet sedan Maunder-minimumet under 1600-talets "lilla istid". Vilket sög eftersom just hade flyttat till Kiruna för att plugga saker relaterade till just det här och på ett och ett halvt år bara såg två eller tre svaga norrsken.
Det som är intressant ur ett mer vardagligt perspektiv är att vädret ofta är bättre under ett solmaximum. Inte på grund av att solens ljus är starkare. Det borde till och med vara tvärtom. Däremot så är solens magnetfält starkare vilket leder till att vi träffas av mindre kosmisk strålning. Den kosmiska strålningen når aldrig till marken oavsett men hjälper till med molnbildningen. Så rent statistiskt är det ett bra år att ta ut lite extra semester.
stolpskott
2013-02-24, 17:42
Jag vet att ni troligtvis är några år yngre, men när det började pratas om Y2K så var det betydligt värre konsekvenser är trasiga elnät... Det var total kollaps av alla bankväsenden, atombomber skulle skjutas iväg av misstag, alla båtar skulle kapsejsa och datorer skulle vara ett minne blott.
Sen blev det förstås ingenting av det.
Ja, de förutsagda konsekvenserna av Y2K var 'värre'. Det har ingen sagt emot. Y2K var dock bara någon irrationell masshysteri utan några som helst vetenskapliga belägg. Sol-maximum är ingen popteori om domedagen, det är ett skede i solens cykel och det är mycket möjligt att nämnda konsekvenser drabbar oss, om än långt ifrån säkert.
M.a.o. så var Y2K rent skitsnack, det här kan faktiskt hända om vi har otur.
Y2K var dock bara någon irrationell masshysteri utan några som helst vetenskapliga belägg.
Du vet inte så mycket om datorer?
stolpskott
2013-02-24, 19:06
Du vet inte så mycket om datorer?
Alltså, jag är medveten om att det från början var ett riktigt problem, att datorer inte var programmerade för att fungera för datum på det nya milleniet. Men så vitt jag vet så upptäcktes buggen rätt tidigt och åtgärdades i alla viktiga system innan millennieskiftet.
Trots det uppstod en masshysteri och folk oroade sig för att alla kärnvapen skulle avfyras och att flygplan skulle falla ur himlen.
En irrationell masshysterisk oro för ett problem som redan åtgärdats, kontra ett solfenomen som vi inte kan påverka på något sätt och som mycket möjligt kan orsaka komplikationer - någonstans där emellan drar jag gränsen mellan humbug och verklighet.
Du vet inte så mycket om datorer?
Alltså, jag är medveten om att det från början var ett riktigt problem, att datorer inte var programmerade för att fungera för datum på det nya milleniet. Men så vitt jag vet så upptäcktes buggen rätt tidigt och åtgärdades i alla viktiga system innan millennieskiftet.
Trots det uppstod en masshysteri och folk oroade sig för att alla kärnvapen skulle avfyras och att flygplan skulle falla ur himlen.
En irrationell masshysterisk oro för ett problem som redan åtgärdats, kontra ett solfenomen som vi inte kan påverka på något sätt och som mycket möjligt kan orsaka komplikationer - någonstans där emellan drar jag gränsen mellan humbug och verklighet.
Tror ni om denna då http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
David Brent
2013-02-24, 20:16
Tror ni om denna då http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
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